Dogecoin is up again, gaining 17% after briefly hitting a recent high of 16 cents. The currency mini-collapsed to 11 cents from 15 cents after a sudden rise of 6 cents.

Now it’s doing it again, trying to hold onto its gains and even slightly higher, with many theories circulating to explain its rise.

Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, SpaceX and now also Twitter, is well known as a doge booster – as the mainstream media would call him – or at least was so well known because he hasn’t mentioned doge since. one moment.

There is speculation as the new CEO of Twitter, Musk might add a crypto wallet to turn the platform into WeChat, but instead of CNY wraps, you can get crypto wraps.

Is Musk really passionate about crypto? Tesla barely lasted two months when it tried to accept bitcoin. Also, the blue ticker revolt might have a lot more to worry about than crypto currently, but they forced Discord to pull out. Plus, would that really make sense?

As an accessory, probably. If people want to use crypto then why not. But people, even cryptonians, generally still operate in fiat, and so if Twitter goes the wallet route, you’d think it would mostly be fiat.

Also with the scale of Twitter you don’t want to trick uninformed people into putting their savings near crypto without great warnings about investing only what you can afford to lose because although some don’t be here only for the bull, we get to ‘enjoy’ the bear too.

And it is this bear, most likely, that explains this dogecoin jump. It’s not the first, it probably won’t be the last, and Musk is likely a sideshow.

Because Dogecoin excitement has been a factor since time immemorial in terms of crypto, since 2013. It’s always the first to jump, always to have the last jump in a hello bear too.

Always, and it always will be, that’s not necessarily the case, of course, as it jumped mind-bogglingly when there was excitement due to its lower market capitalization than the big boys. Now it has a larger market capitalization, but still surged.

If bitcoin goes up or eth goes up, then people expect a ping pong between the two, and if both go up, then other cryptos will go up as well. So goes the thinking.

Not all cryptos though. Some do not follow and are effectively dead. EOS and Monero are two easy bears from 2018 and 2015 with neither quite catching the bull.

It is tempting to say that Cardano could be the equivalent of this wave, although it has shown some staying power. Maybe Solana, but it could also be that some of the defi tokens won’t catch the bullish wave unless they actually donate a portion of the fees to the token holders. Damn the SEC as it always has in this case.

Dogecoin though? He might not catch the bullish wave that left, but the doge is a fun memory for many, so he had a good time.

This means that in the battle between disbelief and trying, confidence can rise for the latter. And although if you believe that can’t be disbelief, it’s still disbelief because emotionally you don’t feel like it happened.

Rationally however, all the signs are there, this doge effervescence being only the latest. When it comes to the macro as well – although it’s not too clear bitcoin really cares since it’s not debt-based – the Powell pivot is now pretty much guaranteed because until can he really still go.

Macro opportunities

And the best thing about Powell is that it could actually be even more bullish, crypto-wise, if he oversteps or breaks something, because then he’ll have to turn the printer back on.

The Fed is currently targeting a higher than neutral interest rate policy. By definition, this means they will have to cut to reach neutral at some point, otherwise deflation will do it for them.

As the market has priced in interest rates of 5%, it is unlikely that there could be a nasty surprise from the Fed at this point where cryptos are concerned and the timeframe is over six months. , because interest rates are at 3.25. %, but there may potentially be good surprises.

With the Fed irrelevant, neither is the gas since Europe has been flooded, as we predicted. Oil is not excluded, but it presents a very unique opportunity.

Germany has spent $200 billion just to cover higher energy costs, which effectively consumes money, although it is necessary. Imagine how much Europe as a whole can spend on a renewable energy industrial revolution. Certainly at least a trillion, maybe two trillion.

It would be an investment. Like a household that buys solar panels with an initial cost and then enjoys free energy for years, the European Union may have a kind of marshal plan to accelerate the manufacture of renewable energies in Europe and even to impose its request.

Should it be mandatory for every household to buy solar panels and maybe even small wind turbines to place in front of the roof, like churches do with their spinning peacocks? You can also have netting around the turbine to keep birds out.

The answer to that question right now is probably no, as the manufacturing sector just wouldn’t be able to keep up with the demand, but for new homes, maybe it should be yes.

Every new car should also have a solar roof, every public building. With such measures, such concentration and such effort, you could even do it in a year in a total emergency, but Europe can do it in five years.

They can call the plan “Europe: the new Saudi Arabia”. And they should move on, because why the hell should we let a crisis go to waste. Or else we’ll bring out breasts again for Scholz.

Protesters calling for an oil and gas embargo, August 2022

Unlike just a few years ago, we now have the capacity to be energy self-sufficient. Given that these are raw investments that will naturally pay off and have the ability to provide significant competitive advantage, such a plan would be good politically with respect to climate change, good economically in reducing costs, good for health in clean air, clean water, and less pollution, and good for national security too.

They would also be very good for innovation if a significant part were made in the EU, hydrogen being just one example.

So the energy problem in theory is solved and if it is solved in theory then in practice it will probably only be a matter of time.

In the short term, however, there is a political problem, particularly in the UK, with unelected new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak planning to both raise taxes and cut spending by $50 billion.

He claims the right to govern because he claims to enforce the election manifesto, but the manifesto promised higher spending and even tax cuts. His manifesto should instead face the voters who have the right to decide exactly who has the right plan for the country.

Labour’s Keir Starmer should perhaps even test it with a vote of no confidence so the public can see exactly what the MP thinks is unworkable austerity and totally uncompetitive tax hikes on most working people from 9 to 5 is the right growth plan.

It is especially now that there is a consensus that growth is the only way out and that it is in fact time to invest in order to seize new opportunities for innovation, such as renewable energies.

Instead, Sunak’s plan is one more for the recession, and if he thinks the markets will reward him, he should simply reverse the stagnation and what it has done to debt.

The UK is a small country however in the global macro. Biden for the United States had a better plan under which a new bracket was added to the tax rates for the wealthiest to make taxation fairer, and trillion dollar plans were drawn up for the investments in infrastructure. Europe will probably follow this plan.

Europe will also have to keep raising interest rates to probably at least 3% in the near term, and if the Fed slows, that should strengthen the Euro, lowering the DXY.

The macro is therefore changing, and while Russia and Ukraine continue their fierce battles, their effects on the rest of the world are somewhat quarantined, with Turkey deciding to continue the grain deal, regardless of Russia’s views, because a grain blockade is a pretty direct attack on Turkey, Europe and the rest of the world.

The longer this continues, the less people will be willing to put up with Russia where they are affected, a country that has banned Facebook. And while some are speculating Republicans, some Americans may have to realize that Ukraine is an EU candidate country, and while the EU isn’t quite a country, annexing it n It’s not too different for Europe than the annexation of Alaska would be for the United States.

The time for the debate with Russia was when we sent all the elected officials, Macron, Scholz, he even met Biden last year during the first rise to power. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin was unwilling to agree to anything, so no one really had a choice on this issue.

This macro background is likely a small part of crypto moves, as the total crypto market cap is still far too small, meaning it has plenty of room for growth regardless of macro conditions.

Instead, it’s probably more the case, there’s reason to think we may have found a bottom, and so the kids, like dogecoin, are excited that any macro improvements won’t is just a bonus.